All in with the cowboys - should you worry about the aces? |
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Posted Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:45 am GMT by Idaho
6 player NL cash game. My $2 raise was reraised (everyone else folds). I had Kings. The other guy was a fairly aggressive player. I call and the flop comes down rags. I go all in and am called. He turns over aces and cleans me out.
Should I have considered his aces? The odds of him having aces are surely so tiny as to make it not worth considering. I figured he either had a pair (he was playing any pair aggressively) or just big cards, and when no Ace flopped I was sure the money was mine.
Was I unlucky, incautious or just a sucker?
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Posted Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:33 am GMT by K-rug
Depends on a lot of things. Position, the size of his re-raise, the size of his stack, how large the blinds were ($2 raise with a $1 BB is weak), how he has been playing, how fast he re-raised you, etc. It is easy to armchair and say you should have considered it after the fact. But as I've said in the other KK thread it just doesn't get much better pre-flop holding Kinds. Sadly, the one hand better is the one he had.
I have seen a lot of people over play QQ so you could give him credit for that or heck even AKs or AQs. I don't think anyone can fault you for doing what you did if you didn't think he had it. That is what it really comes down to. Did you think he had the Aces? If no, then you can't fault yourself online. I am assuming this was online because had it been live play I am sure there would have been half a million tells that the guy had it. If you did think he had it, that gut feeling that you ignored because come on... what are the odds. Always go with your gut.
Posted Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:59 am GMT by MasterShake
He was more likely to have tripped the board than to have AA. It's less than a 1% chance of him having pocket aces so you really would have to rely on your read of the player, and I don't think anyone would blame you if you read him wrong. :D
Posted Mon Dec 20, 2004 11:02 am GMT by Idaho
| K-rug wrote: | | what are the odds |
25,000 to 1 apparently... although that seems excessive.
It was a low ante game - 5/10c blinds, small table. I like it because I like to play fairly loose. After everyone else folded I was in front of him. But it was effectively a heads up so position isn't really that relevant.
Posted Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:20 pm GMT by K-rug
Don't forget the two pair either. Although I guess if they are rags on the board. Still, you'll get no respect at the micro low level limit tables even with a $2 raise on a .10 blind. Ten bucks can last you days and people don't hesitate to call. Granted, he had AA. But expect your high pocket pairs to get called a lot at those levels. The only thing that seems to scare them off is an all-in.
Posted Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:36 pm GMT by howzit
against a agressive player, I would imagine your kings are good because
the player might make the same play with Queens as well.
How much did he raise preflop?
How much did you have in your stack? his stack?
Does he reraise often with crap?
Check the flop and if he checks behind then I'd guess he has aces.
But you should check that flop if you're first to act.
Posted Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:27 pm GMT by Geno
| Idaho wrote: | 25,000 to 1 apparently... although that seems excessive.
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I dunno wot it is but it ain't that 
Posted Sat Dec 25, 2004 3:13 pm GMT by merlyn57
This is my first post to this forum so please excuse me if things aren't exactly the way everybody is accustomed to seeing in format and content.
The odds of getting dealt KK (or any specific pair) is about 220:1.
So the odds of you getting KK and this specific opponent getting AA pre-flop is: 220*220:1, or 48,400:1.
But you don't care about this one opponent, you care about all 9, so the odds are 220*(220/9):1, or 5,378:1 that this will occur pre-flop.
But you don't care about that because you already have your KK, so the odds of AA being held by any one player in this hand is 220/9:1, or 24:1.
So, why worry?
I think a better way to look at it is what range of hands this player may have in this situation that match this betting pattern:AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ
may be a reasonable range for this player (less if tight more if lag).
If you figure the combination of these hands there are six ways to make AA,QQ,JJ, one way to make KK, and sixteen ways to make AK, AQ. Against this range of hands I like KK, and worry not.
Posted Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:40 am GMT by suitedaces84
Against an agressive player with a weak flop you surely can't be blamed for this one.
Posted Fri Jan 14, 2005 6:57 pm GMT by gol4pro
If you hold KK at a 10 handed table... probability someone at the table has AA is:
9(4c2)/48c2 = 9/188 or about 4.5%.
Although rare, it does happen. At low stakes (NL 50 or less), I dont think you should worry about it. I never once folded KK preflop at NL 25 and I never had any problems.
So it does happen and you always ask yourself "Why can't I make that fold?", but with low stakes, more often than not its AK, QQ, JJ, or even TT/AQ.
Posted Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:57 pm GMT by pokerislife
At stakes under nl100$ you should never worry about AA when you have KK. This is a rule to live by. about 70-80% of the time you are worried about AA it is someone who has QQ or less. At higher stakes or if you have way more than the buy in at the table than it can become a different issue. But let me tell you this, I have been playing poker online for two years about 6-7 hours a day and I have lost to AA with KK about 10 times in my whole career.
Short Advice: DO NOT FOLD IT.
Long advice: Once in a while there is a rare time that you are absolutely positive the other guy has AA, where the other player is unbelievably tight, and you dont have a bluffing reputation and u got reraised big multiple times from him when he respects you as a player who plays strong hands. And once again only do this at stakes about nl100$.
Posted Thu Feb 24, 2005 9:44 pm GMT by TheMinigambler
reraise preflop....if he raises agian or calls, you have to consider the possibility of AA. I would set up a sizeable check raise on the flop....if he raises or calls your check raise, then you have a decent indicator that KK isn't going to hold up.
Posted Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:14 am GMT by Idaho
Oddly enough the same thing happened last night. 6 player table, KK in the bb. The aggressive SB raises and I re-raise. He calls. He raises the flop (rainbow rags) and I re-raise. We go all in.
He turns over QQ.
Posted Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:42 pm GMT by TheMinigambler
Looks like you are going all in with kings no matter what which makes your initial question strange. In that case, put people all in before the flop. Make them pay to see it.
Posted Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:11 am GMT by Idaho
Pretty much. That's my point - considering you should always go all in on AA pre-flop, should you not always do the same for KK - considering only AA is at any kind of advantage over KK and the chances of being AA vs KK is slim.
Posted Mon Mar 28, 2005 12:50 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Was playing $2/$2 (yes, that's the format) limit at the local dog track this weekend. Had KK. Player to my right raised the BB, I raised him, everybody else bailed out, and he raised me back. This venue caps betting at three raises. Flop was rags and we repeated the first round: raising and reraising to the cap. Ditto for turn and river.
I discounted odds of AA and since he had come out betting on the deal and the flop I put him on a big pair.
We both turned over KK. Go figure. To add insult to injury we lost money since the house rake ate up the blinds and cut into what we'd put in the pot.
Posted Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:38 pm GMT by FearItself
A couple days ago I was playing $50NL and had KK dealt to me. The blinds were at .50 and had 3 people call ahead of me. I raised it to $4 and got called by one person. Flop came K 7 2 rainbow. My opponent bets $8 and I go all in. We flip over and he has Pocket Aces and spikes an Ace on the river. Boy was I upset! He played it horribly and got all my money for it.
Afterwards I asked myself if I would have called had he gone all-in prefop and I don't know.
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