Winning / Winning Potential |
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Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 2:00 am GMT by woodendart
Winning / Winning Potential. I think if I just could remember the difference between these two I would have a much larger bank roll. I find that you sit down and on the first hand you limp in with 2 & 7offsuit and for whatever reason the next thing you do is look down and on the flop you hit
7, 7, 2. The NUTS.
The next hand A, A your raise pre-flop you get re-raised. Next thing you know it is capped you’re doing your best to not smile but you can already see the chips piled up in front of you. The flop comes 2, 8, 10 not too bad you someone bets you raise. Your pot is building. The turn A. Awesome! You bet it, the round gets capped. Now for the river, a 2, you are not afraid. You bet again all the way to the cap. The guy next you shows you a 2 then another 2. ARGG!!
For the rest of the night you end up not betting as strong when you have a good hand. You tend to play more hands then you should. You walk a way at the end of the night scratching your head wondering what went wrong.
The trouble is that you have mixed up Winning and Winning Potential. You won with your first hand. With your second hand you lost but you had a much higher winning potential. With your first hand 2,7 off suit you will lose -1.12 times your big bet so if you are playing at a $3.00 $6.00 table this means you are losing $6.72 every time you play 2, 7 in the long run. Your second hand has a value of 2.32 or at the same table every time you play A A in the long run you will add $13.92 to your stack of chips.
This makes for a net difference of $20.64. Now can you understand what when wrong? With your first hand you won even though the winning potential was not there. The second hand you lost even though the odds were in you favour and you had a hand that had a very high Winning Potential. As a result the rest of the night you just played what you felt was right with no regards to what the Winning Potential was.
Next time you play try starting only with hands that have winning potential.
Just remember next time you are sitting there trying to decide if you should get in the hand or fold, think about Winning Potential not about whether you won or lost the last time you had the very same hand.
Dart L Wooden
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Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:51 am GMT by suitedaces84
Nice post, very interesting. There's a lot to be learned here. How many hands did it take to compile these stats?
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:35 am GMT by Scott1101
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Nice post, very interesting. There's a lot to be learned here. How many hands did it take to compile these stats? |
haha! I love the sarcasm of some of the regulars on here!
Yeah, nice post and maybe next time you could plug your website in every sentence instead of just every paragraph.
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:49 am GMT by ZIPPY
Winning/Winning potential is not your biggest worry if you are limping in with 7-2o!!!
I would also have a dig at the next bloke for not flipping his winning 2 cards together!
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:47 am GMT by campbeas
I would be too pissed I lost that huge pot to be worrying about how the guy flipped over his cards. Is that really insulting? Its definately more stressful for me, but really in the long run.....it just doens't f*cking matter.
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:44 pm GMT by Fat Tony
the article has been edited to remove the urls, there were a few too many for my taste. the calculator urls just happened to go to the poker site this guy has a big affiliate banner for on his site.
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:56 pm GMT by woodendart
So how many link may I post? I will admit I have something to gain by having people using the links but I also feel I have brought something of value to the forum. I do appreciate the fact that you changed and did not delate the article.
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:19 pm GMT by ilikepoker
we all gain by reading others' posts in the forum. thats what you can get in return for contributing. thanks for the article its a nice story.
Posted Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:46 pm GMT by Scott1101
| ilikepoker wrote: | | we all gain by reading others' posts in the forum. |
Uhhhh, I'm not so sure about that, dude. I can cite a whole helluva lot of posts on here that aren't worth a damn. I'm not saying this is one of them, although the way the voting is going so far this is not going to winning the Pulitzer Prize anytime soon.
But to say that "we all gain by reading others' posts" sounds very idealistic. There is a tremendous amount of garbage on this site. If you're willing to sift through it, then you can indeed learn new things.
Posted Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:49 am GMT by KINGJACK
| ZIPPY wrote: | Winning/Winning potential is not your biggest worry if you are limping in with 7-2o!!!
I would also have a dig at the next bloke for not flipping his winning 2 cards together! |
really like your signature...
took it somewhere or just wrote it?
especialy the poker part?
Posted Fri Mar 04, 2005 2:20 am GMT by woodendart
as to what signature you are referring to.
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