Can a limit holdem backdoor flush draw be profitable? |
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Posted Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:53 am GMT by suitedaces84
I was recently playing a $1/2 limit table on party. I had JdQd I call from early position, get raised and call. This is an extremely loose table especially preflop. Seven see the flop. I wiff the flop with the exception of one diamond. Preflop raiser bets, 4 callers 1 folder, and it's to me. I have no overcards, and need a miracle for a straight, I fold. Might calling that bet on the flop be a good idea?
Think about this:
10/47 = .213 (odds of turning four flush)
9/46 = .196 (odds of making flush if four flush is turned)
37/47 = .787 (odds of not turning four flush)
37/46 = .804 (odds of not making flush if four flush is turned)
78.7% of the time you will turn nothing and fold costing you $1 per time
17.1% of the time you will turn four flush and miss flush costing you $3 per time
4.1% of the time you will make your flush gaining about $35 per time
78.7*-1=-78.7
17.1*-3=-51.3
35*4.1=143.5
total= +13.5
Chasing a with a three flush in this situation is actually not a bad idea especially if you have uppers or something in the straight department.
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Posted Sun Jan 16, 2005 11:26 pm GMT by Absolution
It's about 1/25 for the backdoor flush I believe so you need some serious preflop action to go for just that out. Although, if you miss your set on a pp, it's about the same odds to see the turn. It's rare that you get the odds to chase a backdoor straight/flush or set, but it definitely happens on lower buy limit hold'em. Even if your getting about 20-1, it's worth it if there are a lot of customers.
Posted Sun Feb 13, 2005 2:06 pm GMT by krakajak
I think you over-estimate the money you will be brining in if you make your hand. From my experience, $35 pots are not too common in $1/$2.
Also, it costs you money to chase the flush whether you make it or not, so you need to subtract your post flop contributions to the pot from your profit when you make your hand, as well as when you miss. Pre-flop contributions are not subtracted, since they remain the same whether you chase or not.
If there is a pf raise, you get $14 in the pot, then suppose 5 see the turn, so that brings it to $19, if three see the river, we have 26, then one bets into you, the other folds, and the bettor calls your raise, you get $34 in the pot, minus $1.50 in rake, leaving you with $32.50, but you also have to consider that $7 of that is your own money, so you're profit is $25.50. And this is probably a better-than-average scenario.
Sklansky says that a backdoor flush is worth about 2 outs. Sounds about right to me. In and of itself, it is not worht chasing with, but it may tip the scales in close-call situations.
Posted Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:25 am GMT by KINGJACK
sorry buddy... cant be profitable...
If you also have a belly buste or 2 over cards or a middle pair... maybe...
I said maybe...
But the back door flush draw is not profitable by itself.
first off all if you had enough action pre-flop to give you the odds to see the turn on one bet... be sure of one thing. it wont cost only one bet.
Second, you said 35$ average pot in 1/2... its more 15-18...
And third, you may make you flush on the river and lost to a higher flush or a full house.
So you can experiment your theory, but i think you will get a better pay out in video poker.
Just my humble opinion
Posted Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:35 pm GMT by suitedaces84
For that situation I did over-estimate the final pot. But if there was a little more action it would create a pot big enough to make it profitable. 99% of the time its not worth it, but there are situations where it's worth it. Just something to consider.
Posted Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:25 pm GMT by KINGJACK
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | For that situation I did over-estimate the final pot. But if there was a little more action it would create a pot big enough to make it profitable. 99% of the time its not worth it, but there are situations where it's worth it. Just something to consider. |
Too me it looks not realistic, but you may be right.
However I wont try to pouve it by trying.
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