Goes down with AKs with 2 A's in the flop! |
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Posted Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:16 pm GMT by boden11
Was playing in a cardroom near where I work and had my $60 whittled down to $8 after about an hour and a half. (Collection on the dealer button was $4 to the house, and $1-3 anytime with 2 $1 blinds). Anyways I'm on the dealer button and so there goes another $4 and another $1 to call. I peek at my hole cards and its AKs (spades) so I figure I can get my $4 on 9 other players and probly cash out and leave only down $20 and still be ok. So I call the $1 blind and go all in with a $3 raise, I think maybe one person folds and the rest call. Flop comes and it's A-10-A (rainbow). So I figure I have probly the or 2nd best hand with possible nut full house if I can get a King (and I'm all in anyway). Someone bets, a couple people fold, the rest call. Then comes like a 5, 4 people left in including me and everyone checks. Then a 3, possible straight, but I didn't think anyone would draw to the inside straight against trip A's (even poss quads) so I'm fairly safe. Some lucky bastard turns over A3s and wins with Aces full of 3's (the other 2 people had 2 pair) vs my trip A's with K kicker.
GRRRRR!! He even said he would have folded if I would have bet after the turn (or after flop, etc). I never even saw it coming. I have been rivered more times at this place than I can even count. Lost a AJs (diamonds) after 2 diamonds fell on the flop that night and last week lost to a straight and a flush on the river. Why do I keep getting rivered???? Is it just my style (more conservative, tight, not too agressive) that the river usually isn't going to help me or what??
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Posted Mon Dec 22, 2003 8:34 am GMT by JimTheBullet
It could be your style that is letting you down, without having played with you I couldn't really say. The beat you describe with the AK is slightly unfortunate but really happened because you had no more chips left to bet with on the flop. Now, if you had have had some chips but you slow played the AAA then arguably you could be blamed. To be fair though, AAA, K kicker probably falls into the bracket of hands that will unlikely get beaten.
I have seen a lot of players moaning about bad beats (I am not suggesting you are one of them) when the other guy catches the card that fills his flush on the river, or his straight, but in many cases the player who had trips on the flop ALLOWED this to happen - the player who caught the card did not get lucky.
Try this scenario: You have 99 in the hole, you raise to a level about 3 x the big blind (no limit game) and get two callers. There is now, say 300, tournament chips in the pot. The flop comes down 459 with two diamonds. You have no diamonds in the pocket, the nine of diamonds is on the board. You have the nuts at this point. What would you do? If you check it hoping to trap then you may have made completely the wrong play. I called your bet (but didn't raise in front of you) so I clearly have some kind of marginal / drawing hand. What are the odds of me winning the pot if my hand is 67 diamonds (a feasible calling hand if I have some chips in front of me)?
I can hit a three or an eight for a straight (both would be the nut straight) and I can hit any diamond for a flush (not the nut flush but in a three handed game a flush with 2 in the pocket will normally win). Further, the eight of diamonds would give me a straight flush. I have 15 outs in this position. Seven of these outs (3h, 3c, 3s and all four 8s) will give me the nut hand. This means exactly a one in three chance of hitting a winning card on the turn and slightly better than that on the river (if I need it by then). The four of diamonds is the only scare card for me because although it fills my flush, it also pairs the board which makes the flush vulnerable to a boat or quads.
The point is that you have the nuts on the flop but there is a big danger that you may not have it after the turn or the river. If you put out a small bet, say 50 into the pot that already contains 300, I HAVE to call. The pot would be offering me 7/1 odds for a call (probably 8/1 when the other guy calls) and the cards would be offering me about 2/1 odds. On the other hand, if you put out a pot sized bet, 300, I only get 2/1 odds but I now know that I can probably forget the diamond that pairs the board as an out, reducing my total outs by one on the turn and 2 on the river.
When you have a strong hand on the flop you have to consider what are the chances that it will still be strong after the turn and river. If you think your hand is best but is vulnerable to draws, you HAVE to bet big - take away the pot odds and mostly people will muck their hand but some people will call without the odds. That doesn't matter - if somebody keeps calling your pot sized bets with an inside straight draw, let him (and don't moan when he outdraws you, just make a not about his loose play). About one in eleven times his card will come in but the other 10 times you will collect when he misses his draw. Be aware of the approximate odds that other people's hands could be drawing to. If there are 2 suited cards on the flop and you think somebody has 2 more, calculate their odds and bet big enough not to offer those odds.
In conclusion, if you allow a drawing hand to see the turn or river card for less than the statistical odds dictate and then they outdraw you, this is NOT A BAD BEAT, he played the percentages better than you did. On the other hand if you make a pot sized bet holding top set and John Loosecannon calls you with an inside straight and then hits it you DID suffer a bad beat.
Posted Tue Jan 13, 2004 4:30 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Quote: | | "I have seen a lot of players moaning about bad beats (I am not suggesting you are one of them) when the other guy catches the card that fills his flush on the river, or his straight, but in many cases the player who had trips on the flop ALLOWED this to happen - the player who caught the card did not get lucky" |
I love players like that.
There's this one guy I play with semi-regularly, and I honestly can't count the number of times I've made strictly pot-odds calls to draws, hit the draw on the river, and taken him for his whole stack. Course, it's only like 10 bucks usually, but meh 
Posted Sat Jan 24, 2004 5:09 pm GMT by boden11
actually had the same hand pre-flop (AKs--diamonds) with 2 aces on the flop a few weeks ago in an indian casino (9 handed game). I of course raised pre-flop with my AKs and then bet and raised the flop. It came like A-8-A with 2 spades, not very pretty. The turn came another spade and I bet and raised like crazy, hoping I wasn't dead in the water already to a flush. The river brought *ANOTHER* spade making any rogue spade in the hole the easy winner (I think I was only up against 1 or 2 people by the river). I bet, they called, relief washed over me, as they obviously wouldn't call with a flush and I luckily dragged the pot with my trip Aces.
Posted Sun Jan 25, 2004 11:12 am GMT by nicthestick
The problem is those times when you do flop the nuts, like KK to a low board, raise to get rid of the come hands, and they dont go away. That kind of crap happens to me all the time online. I hate to be a whiner about stuff, but here is the deal. I dont mind being out played. I HATE being out lucked by a goofball who makes the wrong play, and then thinks that it was the greatest play in the world. The best thing is that those guys all show up on my Ultimate Bubby list :D
Posted Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:01 am GMT by JimTheBullet
It does indeed happen all the time.
I look at those calls like this... If I make a bet that is so big that there can't possibly be pot odds for a caller and they call it then one of two things has happened: (1) They already have a hand which they think is good or (2) They are making a ridiculously optimistic call with a drawing hand. In the first instance it comes down to a judgement call - is my hand better than theirs? In the second instance you shouldn't worry about it - if he plays like that all the time then you will beat him consistently. You will get outdrawn and lose occasionally, and it is particularly infuriating if it happens at the start of a tournament and you get crippled, but in the long run you will beat these people who don't understand pot odds.
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