quick and dirty way of calc'ing odds? |
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Posted Tue Jan 06, 2004 8:25 pm GMT by sergestorms
was reading on some site that to calculate odds of hitting take your outs multiply by 2 and add 2 to get the percent.... compared it with some other ways I've seen and it is usually pretty close, most times a bit higher %
was wondering if anyone used this method and if so have they had any success?
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Posted Wed Jan 07, 2004 8:24 am GMT by Dave B
I use this method, and it works out pretty good. The main thing, esp in a live game, is that you can either memorize the actual odds of hitting a specific hand or find a good way to estimate.
The one I do take into consideration when calculating pot odd it to take the size of the end pot into consideration. If I am drawing for a nut str8, flush or boat, then I take the current pot and assume that 1/2 of the players will at least call the final round. If you are in late position and someone is betting in front of you, you also have a chance for a raise on the river if you hit your cards. Heads up, it is rarely worth it, but w/ multiple player pots, there is much more incentive to see the river.
Posted Thu Jan 08, 2004 11:03 pm GMT by packerfanr
sergestorms, i believe your slightly off
for this quick estimate...here is what i recomend...take your outs, multiply that by how many cards are left to show up, and multiply that by two.
Example..you have 8 outs to get a straight..this is off the flop...take 8 (outs) multiplied by 2 (cards left to come(turn, river)) and then double it....about 32%
It will usually be within 2 percent.
Posted Fri Jan 09, 2004 4:33 am GMT by sergestorms
ok that makes a bit more sense.. was wondering how to adjust it to account for if your calc'ing preflop, on the turn etc.
Posted Sat Jan 10, 2004 1:23 am GMT by texasmike
OK. So if you have Ax and pair your little card on the flop, then you have 5 outs (3 A's ,2 x's). 5 times two cards to come equals ten. Double that equals 20. So you have about a 20% chance, or 4 to 1. Right?
Or you have two pair with only the river to go. 4 outs times one card equals 4. Double that equals 8%.
Both of these check out with the tables.
Outs times cards to come times 2.
Hey, this works out pretty good!
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