No Limit All in Preflop Question |
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Posted Thu Feb 24, 2005 10:58 pm GMT by General Sal
I was watching the WPT episode Poker by the Book and I was wondering about some of the Phil Hellmuth plays. Specifically, let's say you're the bigger stack in a tournament, someone is all in. You have A5 and your opponent has a baby pair. I don't know what Phil was thinking when he played the hand, but he was getting 3:1 on his money on the hand. Let's say you have the ace with bad kicker and you think the opponent has a pair... what are the odds of getting the ace by the river?
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Posted Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:41 am GMT by pm_french
The way you calculate this is as follows:
If the Ace is the only out then you have three remaining in the deck. If you call then there are 48 unseen cards. This means at the start of the race 45 of the remaining cards are duds for you.
The odds of you not getting the ace are (remembering that the number of duds lowers each time you get one and the number of remaining cards lowers each card aswell):
45/48 x 44/47 x 43/46 x 42/45 x 41/44 = 0.71
To get the chances you'll get the ace on at least one of the five cards you subtract this figure from 1. Hence the chance you'll get the ace by the river is 29%
However, the chance you'll win the hand in this case is slightly larger as you have the chance of a straight (if the 2, 3 and 4 appear on the board) also because the A and 5 are in range.
If you can't be arsed doing the maths (and who can). Cardplayers website (www.cardplayer.com) has an excellent odd calculator.
Posted Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:56 am GMT by Dave B
or, the cheater method of 2% per card per out
2 x 3 outs x 5 cards =30%
Add to this the value of knocking out a player or the % chance that your read is wrong and you are against the likes of KQ and you make the call w/ a big stack. You are only snowed against AA
FYI-you are still roughly 30% if you are A5 vs AK
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