This was a true bad beat I took in a LIVE NL tourney...odds? |
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Posted Fri Mar 04, 2005 9:32 am GMT by ctandc
I know many will BS..that's fine. I just want to know what the odds were.
$75 entry NL tourney. @ 300 entries. Down to 5 people.
UTG raises 2xBB. Only other caller is a guy who's been REALLY loose pre flop, raising ANY Ace rag and getting nailed because of it. So he calls.
All fold around to me on BB... I just call. ( Can you tell KK has a bad history for me ).
Flop= K K As ( yeah I know...I was biting my lip after this flop )
So I check, UTG checks, other guy ( we'll call him IDIOT for future reference ) goes ALL IN ( about half of my stacks and a little more than half of UTG's stack ).
I call. IDIOT looks kind of shocked.
UTG goes all in...looking like the cat who ate the canary.
So I call....
We flip 'em.
UTQ = AA for A's over K's FH
IDIOT = 2s 5s ???!?!?!!?! ( yeah tell me about even the dealer was laughing )
ME = KK for quad K's
UTG understandably looks pretty dejected.
Turn = 3s
So it creeps into my mind...hell this idiot needs a 4s for a str fl to beat me....I was wondering what the odds of that were...
River = 4s...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I thought several guys watching were going to cry. Hell...I was in total shock.
So IDIOT wins main pot, and I win the rest because his stack was smaller.
UTG busts out 4th.
I did receive a Bad beat Jackpot of almost $900. I think it was a "pity" bonus.
I believe it really cost me the tourney. As I was close to the big stack in count before that hand.
FYI- IDIOT busted out 3rd when my 66 caught a brother on the flop against his Ace rag.
I went out 2nd when big stack put me all in on my TT raise...he was holding K10s and of course caught a K.
So anyone know the odds of hitting that rnr rnr str fl?
I mean we know the turn was 2/47 right? And the river was 1/46..is this correct or not?
Thanks.
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Posted Fri Mar 04, 2005 9:58 am GMT by suitedaces84
| ctandc wrote: |
I mean we know the turn was 2/47 right? And the river was 1/46..is this correct or not? |
Not quite, you know more than just his cards, so you have to subtract your kings and the other guy's aces from the deck. So it's 2/43 for the turn, and the river is 1/42. Multiply those two fractions and those are the odds that he hits.
Posted Fri Mar 04, 2005 1:01 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Hitting perfect-perfect is about 1,000 to 1 I believe.
Posted Fri Mar 04, 2005 1:46 pm GMT by Buddha
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | So it's 2/43 for the turn, and the river is 1/42. Multiply those two fractions and those are the odds that he hits. |
If my math was right, that is .0011......
Posted Wed Apr 06, 2005 2:17 pm GMT by johndsoares
ouch! bad beat!!!!!! nice $900 though =]
Posted Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:28 pm GMT by TheSalche
Did the $900 cover the difference between 1st and 2nd there?
Gotta say I'm impressed that you came in 2nd after that terrible beat.
I had to re-read that to realize he hit his straight flush cause I was so amazed.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:48 pm GMT by deadmoney28
my god man.. i think thats the worst bad beat ive ever heard in my life
Posted Sun Nov 06, 2005 11:14 pm GMT by parksah07
retards are usually rewarded, i was in a NL game today, i had pocket jacks, flop was 10, 8, 3 rainbow, preflop this guy bet $3, i raised to $5, he called, so after the flop i bet $15, he calls, turn is a 5, i go all in, ($16), he calls, shows K Q, river is a king, calls $40+ with NOTHING
Posted Sun Nov 06, 2005 11:45 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| parksah07 wrote: | | retards are usually rewarded |
So why do you bother playing good?
Posted Mon Nov 07, 2005 8:40 am GMT by Nut Flush
Wow, they actually have a bad beat jackpot during a tourney? First time I've heard of that.
Posted Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:30 pm GMT by Aves
Not to get off subject, but I think it's a really terrible move not to reraise preflop. You very likely have the best hand, and the blinds are probably pretty big at this point that the pot size is already pretty good.
Posted Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:55 pm GMT by jonesyb
wow that is a freak hand.
that'll be the poker gods telling ya not to call with KK 
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