Near the $, all in w/ str8 draw & overcards |
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Posted Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:07 pm GMT by krakajak
NL MTT, 120 places pay, 205 players left. Avg. stack about 10k, blinds 600/1200, antes 150.
I have QJo in BB, and defend against a single raise from a big stack in mid/late position.
Flop is T, 9, rag, rainbow. I bet 1,200. He re-raises me all-in. There are about 18,000 in chips in the pot, and it will cost me about 8500 to call. I'm pretty sure that my overcards are no good, but there is a chance that he is playing top pair very aggressively, or that he has JJ and my outs to the Queen are good.
2 questions:
1) rate my play so far.
2) what do I do now?
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Posted Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:26 pm GMT by ReRaIsE
This guy is gonna put you all in pretty much with whatever he has. you hit this flop in the best way possible against a raise, other than JJQ.
I would have just thrown all in, let him call, if I intended to play the hand out at all. You have to assume you are only going to win with a straight.
The thing is, you decided to make a stand with a mediocre hand against a big stack. You either will double up and be in better position for the race ahead or you are toast. I'd be all in..
Posted Sun Mar 06, 2005 7:42 pm GMT by snoogins47
Call him.
I think I like a check-raise all in better than your tiny bet, but that's not the point.
Just throw your chips in and hold your breath.
Posted Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:07 pm GMT by Dakijeza
Fold. You've got two cards to hit a straight. He's probably got a pair, likely overcards, betting them strong with a straight draw possibility on the board. The best-case scenario would be J-J, and even then you only have 12 outs on the turn and river. He could have K-K. That leaves you just 6 outs for a straight.
As far as your play to that point, I don't mind playing connectors, offsuit, every once in a while. I also don't mind betting a straight draw on the flop, although I would have been more aggressive had I bet. Make him wonder if I've got an overpair or trips.
OTOH, if you really think the guy has J-J and you have plenty of stack to cover the bet, I could understand calling. I probably wouldn't, but I could see why you might. You might have a really good read on him and feel like gambling.
Posted Thu Mar 17, 2005 2:38 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
I wouldn't want to call off 80% of my chips at this stage with a Q high.
I would not have bet the flop at all, he raised, i would have checked to him, no matter what hit the flop.
He may well be pushing you with nothing, but then again he could have raised with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AT, A9, TJ anything. Even AK, AQ, AJ, KQ are beating you right now.
Sure you could hit one of your 8 outs. but it's 80% of your chips before the money to see if you will.
Posted Thu Mar 17, 2005 5:05 pm GMT by snoogins47
I think it's clear that he's winning more than his share here. The fact the he "only has Queen high" doesn't matter, if he's winning more than his share. His stack is short, and he's only got roughly 7x the BB if he folds. Without a specific read, I'd peg him at somewhere close to winning this pot 50% of the time on a call, and he's getting over 2:1. Seems like an easy call, though like I said, I like a check-raise all in better.
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