Damn, he hit one of his 14 outs |
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Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:50 am GMT by howzit
howzit folks,
just wanted to put up a hand I royally screwed up. . . .
live 1-2 NL in NYC
Me: (~$900 and have a great image. . . i own this table when i enter a pot)
Villain: (loose russian dude who loves top pair, ~$240)
Villain makes it $20 in MP and I call out of the BB w/ J  8 one limper calls. I know I can outplay villian post-flop and plus he respects my bets/raises.
Flop: ($60)
10  7 5 
checks to villain who bets $25. I call. . . something tells me he's very weak. I'm looking to lead the turn for $70ish here w/any heart or any card below a ten. . .
Turn: J ($110)
I check after playing w/my chips, I look for more clues. . . he checks. Your vote on his hand here?
River: Q
I lead for $20 as a blocking bet. He raised me another $25. . .
If I was given a second chance:
given that line, I'd reraise the river for $150 on top and make him throw away his AQ, KQ.
or
check fold if you're conservative.
I did the stupidest thing possible, I bet/called. . . .I'm still pissed about this river play and the fact that I gave him $50 on the end knowing he was weak and I was behind. I'm not going to post the winning hand. . .
Ideas/opinions/comments/critiques? Scan, Jauron, Murs, Tralfaz, 1988, Reraise, Nick Flynn, even Hit the Flop, or any other NL player, I'd appreciate your thoughts on a river pot-sized bluff? Scan and Murs, I know you're not the type to do this but you think it works here?
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Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:34 am GMT by Soup_dog
Well... I know I'm not one of the people you called out for an opion, but here goes. I tend to be a bit more agressive once I'm in the pot. (I fold preflop the vast majority of the time.) If I'm in, it's gonna be 3 or 4xBB.
Anyways... the flop didn't give you much except for a slight draw. By the same token, I would think it didn't give him much either. Therefore I would have made a good 3xBB just to scare him and see if I can take the pot right then. If he reraises... I'm gone.
As soon as you hit the top pair on the turn I would go 5xBB and hope to take it right then. If he reraises... I would consider calling depending on the size of the bet. (Probably no more than 5 more BB)
At the river, if he isn't raising my bets, I would do another 4xBB because of the over card. If there wasn't an over card I would increase the bet. If he reraised I would be cursing the Gods and probably folding depending on the size of the reraise.
I will be interested in hearing some of the experts opinions on how I would have played that hand.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:42 pm GMT by NickFlynn
Given that you said he was in love with top pair, I'm not sure he would have thrown away his hand on the river. (I'm guess he was holding KQ or AQ from the way you described the hand.) He loves top pair, he's already got almost half his chips in the pot, I think if the queen helped him, he's probably going to call you down no matter what.
I don't think your bluffing options are very good on the river. It's hard to put you on AK given the way you played the rest of the hand, so that leaves what, K9, as the scare hand? Unless you'd built up a history of trapping with monsters, I don't think this is a good bluff situation.
If you sensed weakness after the flop, I think betting out big on the turn was the way to go. Hindsight, I know, blah, blah....
- Nick
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:45 pm GMT by Jauron
I really really really hate J8 suited or otherwise but I'll try to look past that right now.
The flop, I think your read was correct, unless this guy is milking you he's just trying to take the pot down cheap. But since you don't have anything either and a check raise here would need to be big I think I pass on the check raise...if we want to see another card then ok lets call.
Turn, now that I've got a hand along with my gut shot, I'm either going to make a strong bet here or check raise him. I don't like to check raise in this spot, if he's got a big hand I'm throwing away more money than I need to, you've only got top pair after all. You checked (I assume you are planning to check raise but you weren't given the chance) Personally I would have put out a pot size bet, if he calls I'm a little freaked out. If he raises I'm gone.
River...I really really hate this bet. It's going to get flat called by a lot of hands that have you beat, raised by hands that have you crushed, and reraised by hands that are desperate to bluff you. Post Oak bluffs rarely work when reprsenting the straight, you've got to sell it or not bother. Given he raised you another $25 I give him AK or AQ. It's very unlikely he doesn't have you beat...but having said that unless you have a good read on this guy I call for information. I want to know what he has enough to pay him another $25 for later. I want to see his AK here and now for later how he plays it.
What I'd have done on the river if I was going to bet it out. I'd have to come strong at the pot, represent the hand that has him beat AK, and lead out for $90-$100 if I want to take this pot away from him. If he raises me I know he's got it, and I'm gone. I really have to want to take this pot away from him though to make that bet, I have to know going in that he' more likely to reraise me here than call. It is my only shot at winning though. Having said that I pass on this play, I check to him and if he bets anything reasonable I'm gone.
I think he had AK personally.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:49 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Jauron, so is my bet on the flop and turn too agressive?
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:54 pm GMT by Jauron
| Soup_dog wrote: | | Jauron, so is my bet on the flop and turn too agressive? |
That bet is not aggressive enough, it's 1/2 3x2=6????
I don't like bluffing him on the flop, if he raises me big I can't see the turn, plus we need to know where we are. I hate hate hate bluffing out of position on the flop without a hand or a good draw. If we bet into him we are asking for a reraise or flat call, and if he calls and we miss our draw on the turn it's more trouble because now we have to bet even bigger on the turn. In this case we hit top pair, but I want that Jack to scare him not confuse the hell out of him. Confused people call, scared people fold. 
The turn...this is the best shot at taking down the pot, a nice big bet of the pot seems right here. 5x2=10, if I was him I'd raise you out of spite.
I think you have the right idea on the turn, but the wrong bet. Or am I missing something?
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:01 pm GMT by Soup_dog
I'm not very good at understanding pot odds and stuff (I'm working on it.), so let me see if I understand.
$6 isn't enough on the flop because it's not enough to cure him of chasing right? But the $10 on the turn might be enough if he didn't hit anything.
But wouldn't pot odds make him more likely to call on the turn because of the size of the call relative to the pot? In other words, the $6 bet is a higher percentage of the pot than the $10 bet.
This may seem like a dumb question, but I'm still trying to figure this stuff out.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:16 pm GMT by Jauron
Anything under $25 once the flop hits is a waste of time. If it's $25 to see the flop no bets can be under $25 for any one street. Now I've seen people bet less, but honestly it's insane to do it unless you have the deck crippled and are begging for a reraise. Plus I can call with nothing and just try to take the pot away from you later.
Pot odds. If you bet $6 on the flop (there is at least $60 in the pot plus your bet) he's getting 10:1 on a call. What hand can't call that?
On the turn a bet of $10 into a pot of 72 gives him over 7:1 on his call. Even small pocket pairs can call this wimpy bet. Gut shots can call, even over cards are nuts to lay down here.
Forget the 4xBB rule in NL live games, it's dumb and will get you broke. It's for tourney play really anyway. In NL you get a feel for what a "big bet" is preflop and then adjust your bets around that. In some 1/2 games it's $10 in others it's $20 or more. In some NL 1/2 games you will get flat called going $25 by 3 or 4 people. You have to learn what a bet on the table you are at is...then make it.
This isn't so much about pot odds as it is about making a bet that forces somebody to a decision. Anything under $60 and probably you'd need to go higher than that to around $90 on the turn gets called by a guy who raised preflop and followed up on the flop.
He didn't bet $20 on the river to take the pot, it was kind of a post oak bluff, throwing a small amount at a big pot to reprsent a big hand, straights are the worst kind of hand to post oak with IMHO, flushes on the other hand seem to work well, as does the board pairing.
When you play NL, you should either be forcing your oppenents to consider laying down their hand or checking. Betting less than the guy you came into the pot started with is a great way to get outdrawn and reraised.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:17 pm GMT by howzit
hey soup,
| Quote: | | the flop didn't give you much except for a slight draw. By the same token, I would think it didn't give him much either. Therefore I would have made a good 3xBB |
Don't mind the reasoning, just take this into consideration. . . I was out of position against the preflop raiser so this is suicidal if I lead into this board w/a gutshot and backdoor flush. You gotta check there.
One more thing. . . blinds are 1-2 so a 3xBB is $6. The pot is $60 going into the flop.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:28 pm GMT by Nut Flush
Given your assessment of the player (loose), I don't think he's going anywhere on the turn with his open ender. Since you said he hit one of his 14 outs, he had to have been holding KQ(3 Queens, 3 Kings, 4 Aces, 4 nines = 14).
Since you sensed weakness, a raise on the flop may have done the trick. Check raising the pre-flop raiser is a pretty strong move, a lot of people tend to bet the flop just because they raised before the flop. Either that or just fold since all you really have is a gutshot.
The turn card, even though it made you top pair, was a pretty bad card. How loose was this guy? Do you really think he'd fold his open ender to a decent sized bet here? Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, he opted to take the free card and see the river.
I don't think I would have led out with a bet on the river here either. AK, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, K9 all have you beat. Check calling might be ok if he throws out a small bet but anything big and I'd just have to fold that hand.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:29 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Yeah, thats what Jauron was just telling me. I had always heard that you bet agressive by betting 3 or 4xBB to chase people out. Now I hear that that rule only really applies to tourny play. (No wonder I do MUCH better in MTT's than cash games.) He was pointing out the same thing about how a $6 bet into $60 pot isnt anything.
Looks like I need to learn two different styles of play for tournies vs cash games.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:32 pm GMT by Jauron
I'm an idoit, it's obvious what hand he has now...dur read the title.
Given that, I think he calls you on the river, even if you come strong on the river given your read of him. You would have had to really come after the pot on the river to force him out and that would have been dicey.
The turn bet was your best bet, but given what he had, he probably calls unless you overbet the pot and expose most of his chips.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:35 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Ok Jauron, I see what you mean about the size of that bet in cash game. (Thanks, this tip could really help me a bit in my ring games. I can excel at MTT's no problem, but lose like a fish in the ring games.)
Anyways, can you explain what a post oak bluff is and why it only works with flushes?
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:50 pm GMT by Jauron
A Post Oak bluff is a small bet into a large pot. It's a bet that screams call call call with anything. It's a bet designed to get a few bucks more into a big pot when the scare card comes because nobody is gonna call a big bet.
So If I have AKs
Flop comes Qs,Js 3h and some guy keeps betting into me, I decide to call, and the turn comes 9d. He bets some more I can call. River is a 10s the ultimate scare card. Now there are all kinds of hands that this guy has to worry about, a single King probably beats his hand, but 2 spades do as well. I can throw a small bet at this big pot and make him hate his hand, if I go small he might call me with a wider range of hands than if I bet it proper. If I bet the pot, only a K can call me, or a hand with two spades and he's not thrilled about his hand either. Trips might get stubborn here as well, but not likely.
So lets take this same senerio but this time I don't have any hand. Why am I calling? Dunno, but I am. I have nothing, or not much at the end. I can try a post oak bluff here to try to get him to fold, I don't expose much money by doing it and I give myself a chance to win the pot. It works better with "good" players than bad players. Bad players will just reraise you with top pair and miss the straight and the flush scare card.
In the case of the hand in the original post, he's representing the straight, but the only straight he can have that plays it the way he did was probably K9, so it's not likely he has it. The Villian in this case decided he didn't have it and raised.
Flushes for whatever reason scare the hell out of people, it's the most obvious draw to put people on when they call your bet and the board brings two of a suite. So it's the most obvious hand to post oak with.
If the board pairs, and you also bet small after calling every street, it also looks scarey because it looks like you WANT a call. You are representing the obvious hand.
They can work, but again, against good players who are willing to lay down hands they work much much better than poor players. Because so many people post oak (and some I don't even think realize they are doing it) I will sometimes try to overbet when I catch, sometimes this gets called because a monster hand would be more inclined to milk the pot than to throw out a big bet. This will work sometimes as well, and when it does...happy days. You have to mix it up though.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:57 pm GMT by howzit
Ok
I've read enough and I slept on it.
Here goes: I put up this hand as a learning device for myself and anybody else interested. I'll share my thoughts on each street. . .
Situation: 1-2 NL in NYC, the regulars overplay top pair hands and so they like to raise big PF w/any two Broadway cards. This villain happened to check-raise me w/top pair when I had an overpair and paid me off real goot about two hours ago. This has zero relevance to this hand, but I did pick up that this guy marries top pair.
Preflop: $20 in MP and I call w/ J 8 and early limper calls.
I need position to play this hand. Fold preflop
Flop: 10 high board, rainbow. I pick up a gut shot and a backdoor flush draw.
So, I knew that w/any bet that villain made, unless I was sure he hit a set of tens or had KK or AA I can make this call. He bet $25 in a way that made me think he was weak, so I smooth called looking to bluff on the turn. early limper folds.
Turn: J.
Oh my god, I actually made my hand. This took me by suprise because I was going to bluff at this pot but now I have the best hand (in my mind) There went that plan. I left out about five factors from the original post but here's what made me check this.
- He's a calling station. . . and although I think he's weak if he's got a draw or if I misread him and he has an over pair, he's going to call. I'm only betting here if I think I can take the pot down, which I don't think I can.
- I have the best hand but his hand got better. It's a lot easier to bluff at a ten high board when I've called preflop and flop.
- If a A, K, or Q pops up on the river, i'll have to make a painful fold and if I bet the turn, the pot is going to be that much bigger.
- If the river bricks, I can check to him and see if he'll bluff at it one more time. (offensive checking)
- It wasn't a heart and that took away my semi-bluffing opportunity.
- I have a hard time deciding which two broadway cards he does have. So maybe he got lucky and hit a Jack, leaving me dominated.
It took me a while to check there, but when he checked behind, I felt real good about my hand.
River: Q
- That card sucks. . . AK, KQ, AQ all got there.
- I bet $20 as a blocking bet because I was willing to call a $20 bet so this way if he did get lucky and hit a queen, he might call behind
Reraise $25
- Here's where I f*ck up. and I mean big time. I bet $20 to get a cheap showdown and instead got raised.
- A lost total self-control. I made a great read on him on the turn only to have the cards not cooperate. I made a crying call just to prove that I was right.
- Pot was $175 at this point so I was getting 7:1
- I maxed out his value for a hand he played poorly. I think he f*ck up every street. And there I was, paying him off.
In the end, I don't think reraising here is going to work, given my line (my passivity) AND his penchant for overcalling top pair. He could have the nuts so that'd be retarded.
As soon as he showed, I was so pissed at myself, I got up and walked around. I was so embarrassed by my river play, and I sat the next hand just thinking about what I did. I almost tilted but recovered in time to get some of it back later
These types of pots is what really decides whether a night will end up profitable or break-even. And to win the most, lose the least, river decisions need to be much stronger than this.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:03 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Interesting. See, with a board like that, and I didn't have it, I would think you would want to bet huge and drive him out. If I made a small bet at that point I would figure he was "pot committed" and he would say "what the hell", it's only another x dollars.
I guess that's why you say it works better with "good" players. LOL
BTW howzit, sorry for hijacking your thread, I just thought this was a very interesting hand to discuss.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:08 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Howzit, so do you think the correct play on the river would have been a check and fold?
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:12 pm GMT by Jauron
| howzit wrote: | Ok
I've read enough and I slept on it.
Here goes: I put up this hand as a learning device for myself and anybody else interested. I'll share my thoughts on each street. . .
Situation: 1-2 NL in NYC, the regulars overplay top pair hands and so they like to raise big PF w/any two Broadway cards. This villain happened to check-raise me w/top pair when I had an overpair and paid me off real goot about two hours ago. This has zero relevance to this hand, but I did pick up that this guy marries top pair.
Preflop: $20 in MP and I call w/ J 8 and early limper calls.
I need position to play this hand. Fold preflop
Flop: 10 high board, rainbow. I pick up a gut shot and a backdoor flush draw.
So, I knew that w/any bet that villain made, unless I was sure he hit a set of tens or had KK or AA I can make this call. He bet $25 in a way that made me think he was weak, so I smooth called looking to bluff on the turn. early limper folds.
Turn: J.
Oh my god, I actually made my hand. This took me by suprise because I was going to bluff at this pot but now I have the best hand (in my mind) There went that plan. I left out about five factors from the original post but here's what made me check this.
- He's a calling station. . . and although I think he's weak if he's got a draw or if I misread him and he has an over pair, he's going to call. I'm only betting here if I think I can take the pot down, which I don't think I can.
- I have the best hand but his hand got better. It's a lot easier to bluff at a ten high board when I've called preflop and flop.
- If a A, K, or Q pops up on the river, i'll have to make a painful fold and if I bet the turn, the pot is going to be that much bigger.
- If the river bricks, I can check to him and see if he'll bluff at it one more time. (offensive checking)
- It wasn't a heart and that took away my semi-bluffing opportunity.
- I have a hard time deciding which two broadway cards he does have. So maybe he got lucky and hit a Jack, leaving me dominated.
It took me a while to check there, but when he checked behind, I felt real good about my hand.
River: Q
- That card sucks. . . AK, KQ, AQ all got there.
- I bet $20 as a blocking bet because I was willing to call a $20 bet so this way if he did get lucky and hit a queen, he might call behind
Reraise $25
- Here's where I f*ck up. and I mean big time. I bet $20 to get a cheap showdown and instead got raised.
- A lost total self-control. I made a great read on him on the turn only to have the cards not cooperate. I made a crying call just to prove that I was right.
- Pot was $175 at this point so I was getting 7:1
- I maxed out his value for a hand he played poorly. I think he f*ck up every street. And there I was, paying him off.
In the end, I don't think reraising here is going to work, given my line (my passivity) AND his penchant for overcalling top pair. He could have the nuts so that'd be retarded.
As soon as he showed, I was so pissed at myself, I got up and walked around. I was so embarrassed by my river play, and I sat the next hand just thinking about what I did. I almost tilted but recovered in time to get some of it back later
These types of pots is what really decides whether a night will end up profitable or break-even. And to win the most, lose the least, river decisions need to be much stronger than this. |
If I can make one comment here. It concerns me a little that you seem more interested in outplaying somebody than in winning the pot. The fact you called with J8 and then did what you did seems to suggest you either wanted to get some revenge or decided he was such a poor player you could force him to not have a hand at the end. Against what range of hands is it reasonable to want to be heads up, out of position, with J8s?
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this contribured to your "tilt" after the hand. That you got outplayed, and by a guy you only entered the pot to outplay yourself.
I know guys who try to outplay everybody at the table, and when they hit cards they clean up, but man when they loose, they tend to loose their shirt.
Again, just a guess here. I'm not trying to do anything but help. If you start looking for reasons to come into hands against player X, outside he's passive as hell and will lay down to you, I have to question the logic behind the decision. It happens to me sometimes too, but in the end I know I was wrong to make it personal.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:37 pm GMT by howzit
Jauron, cool and I appreciate. It's just that most pots in NL I realize that it's so much psychology, it's scary.
i'm sure you know I have nothing personal against this OP and I (all of us) could care less if we're stacking the college kid's lunch money or some degenerate gambler's pay check.
As to outplay players, that is what I do. That's why I play the game. If I hit the nuts, I'm trying to outplay my opponent into paying me off. If I hit two pair on a three flush board, I'm trying to decide where I am in the hand.
Unfortunately, I don't get the opportunities to hit boards like this too often and I think what sets me apart from the other 1-2 NL players is that I trust my read and know what hands they hold. Or at least I try my damn hardest to figure out what they have and then decide what is the right move.
If I think opposition is holding second pair and the only way I can make him move off of second pair is moving in, then that's what needs to be done. In this hand, I'm calling w/trash obviously looking to get real lucky and hit my straight or trips 8s. I agree playing this out of position is retarded and that's probably the first mistake of the hand. But once the flop comes, I'm ready to go to war. I put my senses up, think about what he's holding and then deciding when and where to put pressure if the cards cooperate.
In this hand, I came close, I mean real close to scooping a 50BB pot and I played the flop and turn as well as I could. That's what gets me upset that I let two great streets be ruined by my crying call.
I've mentioned before that I tend to overbluff and yes it's something that I'm working on. . .so that's why I'm glad I post these hands, take a little heat and keep me in check from doing something -EV. Maybe I'm still not experienced enough to instantly spot bluff/raising opportunities but I think i need to at least accept it as an option in these types of hands against my regular opponents.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:54 pm GMT by Jauron
If you say you weren't making it personal, then I trust you weren't.
I understand the outplaying thing, and every decent/good/great player HAS to think the same way when he enters a pot, it just shouldn't be a reason TO enter a pot.
I'm not the authority on anything, I just wanted to make sure you weren't doing it is all.
Posted Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:59 pm GMT by NickFlynn
Speaking for myself only, I think this is a major leak in my game. Once I feel I've got a read on a player and think I can outplay him, I tend to go hunting for them, often with marginal hands. Sometimes it works, but sometimes it leads to some really stupid losses.
- Nick
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