Do you ever discount a nut draw? |
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Posted Sat Mar 12, 2005 12:32 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I know this is going to be terribly situational, but the hand below is a prime example of what I'm talking about.
***** Hand History for Game 1722364038 *****
1/2 TexasHTGameTable (Limit) - Fri Mar 11 23:53:23 EST 2005
Table Dash n cash (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: jinglebell21 ( $63.75)
Seat 2: justRP ( $85.62)
Seat 3: mrpockets9 ( $48.5)
Seat 4: ANGELFAN02 ( $42.88 )
Seat 5: gaturs1 ( $7)
Seat 6: grtflone3 ( $53.38 )
Seat 7: islands12002 ( $59.5)
Seat 8: SeanInNJ ( $57.25)
Seat 9: GentleDraw ( $23)
Seat 10: CJFulton ( $30.75)
CJFulton posts small blind (0.5)
jinglebell21 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SeanInNJ  
justRP folds.
mrpockets9 calls (1)
ANGELFAN02 calls (1)
gaturs1 calls (1)
grtflone3 folds.
islands12002 folds.
SeanInNJ calls (1)
CJFulton calls (0.5)
jinglebell21 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** :   
CJFulton bets (1)
jinglebell21 calls (1)
mrpockets9 calls (1)
ANGELFAN02 calls (1)
gaturs1 folds.
SeanInNJ raises (2) to 2
CJFulton calls (1)
jinglebell21 folds.
mrpockets9 calls (1)
ANGELFAN02 calls (1)
** Dealing Turn ** : 
CJFulton checks.
mrpockets9 checks.
ANGELFAN02 bets (2)
SeanInNJ calls (2)
CJFulton calls (2)
mrpockets9 calls (2)
** Dealing River ** : 
CJFulton checks.
mrpockets9 checks.
ANGELFAN02 checks.
SeanInNJ checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $22 | Rake: $1
Board:
jinglebell21 balance $61.75, lost $2 (folded)
justRP balance $85.62, didn't bet (folded)
mrpockets9 balance $43.5, lost $5   a pair of fives --
ANGELFAN02 balance $59.88, bet $5, collected $22, net +$17   a pair of tens with king kicker -- 8cKh(kicker card)
gaturs1 balance $6, lost $1 (folded)
grtflone3 balance $53.38, didn't bet (folded)
islands12002 balance $59.5, didn't bet (folded)
SeanInNJ balance $52.25, lost $5 high card ace --
GentleDraw balance $23, sits out
CJFulton balance $25.75, lost $5   a pair of tens --
Turns out I didn't have nearly the number of outs I thought I did, although in retrospect, I still had plenty enough to raise the flop. How many of you go so far as to include your opponents suspected holdings in your pot and implied odds calculations, even when you know your draw is the better one?
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Posted Sat Mar 12, 2005 5:27 pm GMT by howzit
Negreanu has this to say:
"I put him on two aces so that took away two cards from the unknown cards in a deck."
I'm comfortable doing it if I put somebody on a pocket pair and I'm drawing to a straight or two pair something. W/flush draws, I wouldn't put too much equity on it, esp. online.
Posted Sat Mar 12, 2005 7:08 pm GMT by Jeremiah
In my opinion you do have to discount cards if you feel the player has a particular hand. What good is knowing the players other hand if you dont use the info.
The real problem is determining if your opponent does have what you think he has. If you really feel confident of your read there should be no question of using that hard fought advantage you have.
Posted Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:46 pm GMT by snoogins47
Of course you have to discount them. Say you have 8 outs to a straight, but 4 of them would almost certainly garner you a split... since you might be playing for half the pot, NOT discounting them somewhat in your pot calculations is just bad poker. If you're probably playing for half the pot, you have to discount your "outs" to that half, plain and simple.
Also, when calculating against a range of opponent's hands, if you have a nut flush draw and think he might have a lower flush draw, your chances of making the flush go down, but your chances of winning usually skyrocket (unless he's already got a pair, so you'll probably be a coinflip) so that's another thing to take into consideration... you're right that it's horribly situational, but you have to do things like that.
Posted Tue Mar 15, 2005 4:57 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Oh yes, if you believe your opponent is on the same draw you must do two things:
1. Adjust your odds based on the revised number of outs and make sure you still have correct pot/implied odds.
2. Be sure that your draw is better (ie the nut flush).
Posted Tue Mar 15, 2005 5:10 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Thanks everyone. I *do* discount outs for straight draws with suited flops, overcards with straight draws, etc. I just thought this situation was a bit more subtle in that I'm not particularly worried about one of my outs making someone else a stronger hand, but more with the chance my opponents are holding the cards I need.
Posted Sun May 29, 2005 11:49 pm GMT by Jackal
Usually I try to put a little equity in the pot when drawing for two reasons. First I feel I have the best hand and if it hits I will break him. Second, if nothing hits I am going to take down the pot because he has been chasing me. The aggressor always has the advantage in poker.
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