Interesting....does this make sense to people? |
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Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:18 am GMT by Dave B
We had a hand last night that was a HUGE pot, but there was some agruement over the odds.
Player 1: A  10
Player 2: J  J 
Flop J Q 9
Now-the A10 (a VERY good player) bet the piss out of it, insisting that he was 60% favorite.
Player 2 was reraising entire time and insisted that HE was clearly a favorite
So-as it turns out, the JJ was a 60/40 favorite to win the hand. The A10 was a 60% favorite to make a str8 or flush. He loses if one of his 15 outs pairs the board-so that takes Q :spade out of play. He still has 14 outs.
Somehow this makes some sense to me. But it still is kind of a brain twister.
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Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:01 am GMT by Geno
I thought that the only way you could be favourite without a made hand after the flop was if you hold a straight, flush and straight-flush draw. ATs didn't have two of those draws..........
Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:12 am GMT by Dave B
Huh? He has 2 way str8 and a flush draw. K or 8s give him a str8
Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:24 am GMT by Geno
My bad, he was only missing the straight flush draw but I guess it doesn't affect the outs. Back in my box 
I assume JJ won the pot?
Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:25 am GMT by Dave B
No, spade on the river
Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:44 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Dave B wrote: | | He loses if one of his 15 outs pairs the board-so that takes Q out of play. He still has 14 outs. |
He also loses if the river pairs the turn card. So the drawing hand either loses an out on the turn or the set gains 3 outs, unless the turn is the Q which gives the flush a redraw to the straight flush.
It's certainly not a simple calculation. 
Posted Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:49 am GMT by Dave B
I get that. What confuses me/yet makes sense at the same time is that JJ is a 60% favorite to win. A10 is a 60% favorite to hit his draw-BUT, if he hits on the turn, then he is only 75% to win-but still he is a big favorite.
So essentially, can you blame either player for betting strong? A 10 will hit over 60% of the time and win 75% of those. JJ is ahead and can still outdraw if A 10 hits. BUT-if A 10 hits, then JJ only has one cards to pair the board. If A 10 hits on the river (30% chance) it is over.
So are you relutant to push either hand? BTW-pot was capped preflop and on the flop w/ 4 seeing the flop and 3 seeing the turn. That is why Q10 wasnt real reasonable.
Posted Wed Apr 06, 2005 5:32 am GMT by Xamzax
Interesting hand. The JJ was ahead on the flop, the AT had 14 outs (he can count the Q since he can't "know" his opponent had the set).
This gives him approximately 52% to make his hand. But selecting odds based on "making a hand" versus the odds that would make you dead money is part of the gamble of hold em. You don't know what your opponent has and certainly shouldn't be able to calculate perfectly. The double straight draw and the flush draw makes the hand look excellent, but it is STILL a drawing hand.
The JJ flops a JQ9. Great looking hand! I'm always going to bet that one out right away, only fearing the QQ. Look at what he might have as potential outs to improve... Any JQ9 or if the turn has one of the AT's outs, he could pair it on the river. But look, my philosophy is this, if you spend all your time calculating odds, you may find yourself halting yourself out of betting. Only in those rare instances when you are facing a straight flush draw with top pair and maybe a little magic.. that's one of the few times to worry. But since the operative word is RARE... over the long haul, you don't bother with those calculations.
Or do you?
Just my thoughts.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:40 pm GMT by howzit
Ran it through 2dimes and see that the set is a resounding 3:2 favorite.
Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=894262
pokenum -h as ts - jh jc -- qh js 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ts 390 39.39 591 59.70 9 0.91 0.398
Jc Jh 591 59.70 390 39.39 9 0.91 0.602
But take a look at this hand,
A 10
K Q
Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=894265
pokenum -h as ts - ks qs -- qh js 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ts 551 55.66 439 44.34 0 0.00 0.557
Ks Qs 439 44.34 551 55.66 0 0.00 0.443
or a very possible hand
K 10
Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=894267
pokenum -h as ts - ks tc -- qh js 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ts 420 42.42 561 56.67 9 0.91 0.429
Ks Tc 561 56.67 420 42.42 9 0.91 0.571
In all these regressions, A10 is only ahead of the K Q
Mathmatically, A10 shouldn't be capping the turn (i'll assume this is what happened) But, he'll have 13 outs to hit on the river and if he caps the river, he might get an extra bet on the river if he fills up.
In NL, you're going to see a big turn bet, if not all-in. Then it's your willingness to gamboooooooool.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:56 pm GMT by howzit
| Xamzax wrote: | | the AT had 14 outs this gives him approximately 52% to make his hand. |
You're heading towards the right path but not there. . .you figure that all those bets going in are coming from a made hand, which a lot of hands have the possiblity to redraw.
| Xamzax wrote: | over the long haul, you don't bother with those calculations.
Or do you? |
Do you take an umbrella out if there's a chance of rain?
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